Jay Forrest

Consulting

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Qualitative System Dynamics

Problems, Opportunities, and Strategies

The Financial Crisis and the Need to Think Holistically and to Look Ahead!

Over the past months we have seen business and government executives flailing at the economic and financial problems in a disorganized and short-sighted manner that represents crisis management at its worst. One gets the feeling that the solutions being pursued have no recognition of the secondary and tertiary impacts of the proposed solutions. Without awareness of where these solutions lead, we are almost certainly simply swapping one crisis for another - and with less resources to address the subsequent complications.

We all need to take a few moments and look at the bigger picture and make sure our actions are moving toward long term progress and not simply swapping rattlesnakes for alligators. Crises create opportunities - but the opportunities are not visible when one is focusing on one issue or problem, and neither are the other problems that will arise when the one problem is "slain".

Getting to the big picture. Quickly. And insightfully. To enable recognition of opportunities and broader problems so that proactive and robust strategies can be pursued. That is my goal in working with clients in today's economic and political climate.

Background Statement

The trio of problems, opportunities, and strategies has dominated the focus of my work throughout most of my career. Early on, I recognized that traditional approaches to problems and planning were frequently failing and too often leading to unintended consequences. As a result I began accumulating tools and perspectives to build insight and build stronger and more robust strategies and solutions. For twenty years I have selectively helped clients solve problems, identify opportunities, and develop robust strategies.
Problem definition is a critical first step - collecting facts and perceptions, closing gaps, and building a cohesive understanding of the problem or issue at hand. Every problem brings opportunities that are too often overlooked in a reductive focus on a problem. Holistic approaches and creativity help avoid unintended consequences, establish stronger goals, and build organizational awareness of uncertainties, decision points, and alternative scenarios. The ultimate goal is a strategy that will succeed across a variety of possible futures.
Over the past ten years I have worked General Motors, Royal Dutch Shell, Bell Canada, Rolls Royce Aerospace, Texas Utilities, and others on issues ranging from industry deregulation, to supply chain problems, to research funding strategies, and long-term market scenarios.
Experience suggests successful engagements begin by consolidating client knowledge and insight with the mutual goals of surfacing pertinent knowledge and minimizing perceptual gaps that may exist across the client team. That consolidated knowledge base serves as a platform for addressing issues of concern, for evaluating uncertainties, and for considering alternatives. Tools, methods, and methodologies are selected to match the needs of the client and issue under consideration. I find the most successful engagements are organic, evolving with the client. While the specific definition of a successful engagement will vary from project to project, I would characterize successful engagements as preparing client teams to act cohesively to resolve an issue or problem while avoiding unintended consequences. For longer term issues, this typically involves developing a strategy that will be robust across a range of possible futures.

Typical Clients and Projects

I typically work with executives and executive teams to build awareness of factors surrounding their business and industry. My role lies not in being an expert in my client's businesses but rather to help them understand uncertainties and factors outside their normal awareness that are likely to influence their business and industry. Within that framework, uncertainties and problems become opportunities for competitors are unlikely to be prepared. An important facet of this work lies in developing mental flexibility and strategies that will be robust across a range of possible futures. Put in the language of the cowboy, "One is rarely bitten by the rattlesnakes one sees, it is the one that is not seen that gets ya." I see a key part of my role as helping clients recognize more dangerous rattlesnakes - and to have strategies and mindsets to convert problems to opportunities! 

As a result, I work with clients from all industries - from petroleum to telecommunications, from aerospace to public utilities, including companies such as Royal Dutch Shell, General Motors, Bell Canada, Rolls Royce Aerospace, and Texas Utilities. I also work with nonprofits such as CARE on appropriate projects.